Zagreb Television recently broudcast the results of a public opinion poll conducted among the inhabitants of the Republic of Croatia (a representative sample of two thousand) in which they were asked to state their opinion as to the most urgent problems facing the Yugoslav government today. The results are listed here in the order of importance: 1. emigration of labour 15.8% unemployment 14.6% 3. existence of privileges, undeserved high wages, personal enrichment 12.2% 4. gap between government promises and their execution 9.3% 5. contrast in the security of wages: of the civil service and the insecurity of workers carnings 6.5% 6. insufficient control over political leaders and officials 5.9%. 7. economic soundness of the productive units 5.7% 8. national inequalities 4.35 9. inequalities in the division of revenues, irregularities in selfmanagement 3.8% 10. insufficient Republican powers in relation to the federal centre 2.9%% 11. military readiness of the army and civil service 2.6% 12. wide powers of hanks and re-exporters [special type of hank| 2.2% 13. no problems 0.9% The remaining 13.396 were "don't know" and "not sufficiently informed".
The answer no. 7 is related, in part, to one of the more important problems endemic in the Yugoslav economy today. (More information will be found further on.) In the aftermath of the first devaluation of the dinar (1965), the economy has over-extended itself and many projects have been started without financial resouroes necessary to complete then. This has meant cutting down on and even abandoning investinent commitments (for example, the building of tourist infrastructure along the coast), which has resulted in unemployment and wage reductions. One further feature of the table above is the relatively low rating of problems dealing with the question of the Republican independence from the federal centre and with national inequalities, this being somewhat unexpected given the recent resurge of the national sentiment in Yugoslavia The more important answers can be illustrated with references to the recent vicissitudes in the Yugoslay standard of living and to the problem of labour emigration, The successive devaluation of the dinar (65, "68) has not had the expected beneficial effect on the economy. Trade figures for the first three months of this year show an increase of the already large deficit of the balance of payment. In comparison with the first quarter of the last year, exports have remained stationary while imports have gone up. by 45% Comparing March with February of this year, imports are up by 445 showing in relative values a repetition of the last year's foreign trade pattern. The galloping inflation has hardest hit the lowest income groups. Alrea Already in the first quarter of this year the cost of living is up by 4.5% on last December's, itself risen beyond the level predicted by the government economic experts. The food prices only have gone up by 6%. The Yugoslav trade unions are up in arms as the economic difficulLes, coupled with the political uncertainty, has made the material conditions of the Yugoslav worker's life precarious, to say the least. Threats of general strikes have been urticulated within the trade union movement as well as in the Federal Assembly, The secretary of the Trade Union Federation Council, Mustafa Pjakie, has recently declared that the Yugoslav population is not sharing the burden of the coonomic reform to the same degree but that the already privileged layers are actually protected from carrying this burden to the detriment of others. He gave two examples he had in mind. While the prices of basic foodstuffs as well as of domestic oil and electricity have rocketed, the consumer goods typical of "higher standard" are selling at hardly altered rates. At the same time, cents of subsidised and cheap flats have gone up considerably when those of more luxurious apartments are actually being subsidised against the increase, and "we know who lives in them". The effect of the cconomic crisis is even worse in the agricultura. secror where at any time 60%E of the employed enjoy an income considerably below the Yegoslav standard (below 1,000 vis 1,200 dinars a month]. This has forced the Federal Executive Council to consider the ways of stabilising prices but the suggestions considered are stally of the "bootstrap"" kind: fixing prices for agricultural producis, selective tax reduction, supplies from food reserves, ete. This means a bleak prospect for the Yugoslav worker-in particular as from January Ist of this year no economic development plan exists. The old plan was supposed to be revised but due to political uncertaintles (dismantling of the federal state appeared to be a possibility) nothing was done.
As for the export of labour, one million (out of twenty million) Yugoslavs are at prosent working abroad: mainly in Frunce and West Germany. The exodus of unqualified but also badly needed qualified labour has reached such proportions that the Federal Government has been considering ways and means for attracting back some of these "foreign workers"- without producing an avalanche of returns. In this process the complex relationship of the phenomenon to the Yugoslav political and economic Life has been highlighted. A formula of "100,000 circulation" is thought to be optimum for the economy, According to this formula, 100,000 workers would retur and 100,000 leave each year. There are difficulties however. First of all, the "foreign " worker will return only if there is a place waiting for him and it is not easy to find 100,000 jobs in Yugoslavia today. Then there is the problem of how to attract only skilled labour (previously trained or of fulfiling their financial obligations in 1970 with skills learnt abroad). This could be accomplished by aconomic incentives but creation of a preferential category of this kind would nol reflect well on the Govement's political image Even if jobs and material benefits could be guaranteed, this policy would come in conflict with the coonomic calculations of foreign governments, West German in particular. It is clear that a West German employer, having trained a foreign worker, will want to keep him as long as there is the shortage of local labour and would not be happy with uncertainties that would be a necessary cause of such a measure on the part of the Yugoslav Government.
An important dimension of the labour immigration is the role that "foreign" workers" savings play in the Yugoslav trade balance. It appears to be one difficult to dispense with, as withoat this influx of foreign currency, the balance of payments would be at least twice as nogative as it is today. On the other hand, if the Yugoslav cconomy is to stabilise at a relatively competitive level, it will need trained labour. The Congress of Solf-Managers, which took pisce on 5-8th May, was supposed to discuss these urgent questions in the presence of 46 delegates from abroad attending the Congress with Tell voting rights. 1H 1u00sJ According to Le Monde, and in the momentary absence of Yugoslav press reports, the Congress proceeded in a most critical tone. Attacks were voiced not only against bureaucrats and technocrats (according lo some delegates corrupted managers should he removed at once but against the political leadership whose disagreements, some felt, has aggravated the coonomic crisis. Delegates insisted on a more egalitarian division of revenues, improvements in the fiscal system, struggle against "etatist" elements, help for agricultural producers, ete. The material insecurity of the low-paid workers was contrasted with the personal enrichment of some, The President of the Federal Government, Mitja Ribitchich has, in his turn, called the attention of the Congress to "the seriousness of the economic situation and the possible danger of social conflict". According to him, "inflation, and instability, and devaluation of the dinar are the worse enemies of the working class."
His address ended with some economic arguments which are reproduced here. 1. The number of enterprises that were incapable has gone up by 69% on the same period of the year before. 2. Tha loss suffered by various enterprises reached last year a figure of 4,552 million dinars, only a quarter of which has been balanced 3. The foreign trade deficit has gone up to 27,940 million dinars. Our of 679 controlled enterprises, 237 will be culled to account for illegal realisation of 440 million dinars. 4. The state has lost 33 million due to mismanagement in a number of enterprises 22 million of this has gone to the banks which are supposed to control the economic activities of the enterprises.
In conclusion he pleaded for greater "legality and social discipline". What will follow is difficult to predict in particular as no detailed report on the urgently called meeting of the Yugoslav political leadership which took place a few weeks ago at Brioni (Tito's sumner residence) is available. It is signiticant that the Congress did not approve legalisation of the right to strike as had been generally assumed by the Yugoslav press before the Bretti meeting The figures presented here give only a partial indication to the coonomic buckground of the Yugoslav internal political dynamies. Radole Hornat