the last few years revolutionary Marxists had been noting the trends in the American economy and predicting the measures which an American President would be forced to take to try and right the situation. Most of these predictions have been confirmed. Two key factors have determined the economic situation of the United States: its role as the leading capitalist policeman against social change anywhere in the world (a role which it had largely to finance itself) and the deteriorating balance of payments situation caused by the rapid growth of European and Japanese competition on the world market since the last war.
THE AMERICAN WORKING-CLASS But while the external effects of Nixon's economic policies are extremely important, and bound to have longtern repercussions, the result at home should not be underestimated. Even though the wage freeze is supposed to be restricted to three months, it is obvious that a more prolonged system of wage-controls is being worked out and even trade union leaders like George Meany (AFL CIO), not particularly noted for holding radical views, have been forced to denounce the measures as "patently discriminatory against working men and women". He also pledged non-cooperation and immediately set the AFL-CIO lawyers working on ways and means to have Nixon legally defeated NASHRENIN ON STRIKE ILWN The car workers leader Leonard Woodeock threatened strike action if the freeze was extended beyond 90 days and stated publicly, "If they want war, they can have wor. "All These signs point to a factor which has been giving sleepless nights to the Nixon regime: a reawakening of militancy in the American working class, of which the postal workers" strike (1970) and the General Motors strike which ended early this year are only part of the symptoms. Given the present economic situation we can expect to see big struggles in the American working class and this factor coupled with the radicalisation which has taken place on the periphery of the working class, could lead to extremely powerful explosions, This is the spectre which is beginning to hasint the less complaceut sections of American capital and pressures for both economic and politter Isolationism fie. a more insular foreign policy) are likely to increase as a result. But the latter is clearly out of the question. The situation in Latin America and Asia does not permit it.
WE UNITED SEMES OF AMHHECS CONTENDO WEST GERMANY AND JAPAN The two capitalist countries most affected have been West Germany and Japan, While for the Germans Nixon's freeze means a cutdown in Volkswagen sales to the U.S. (before the import surcharge West Germany sold one quarter of its total output of Volkswagens to the States), for the Japanese the new measures amount to an economic Pearl Harbour. Of its total exports, Japan exports 305c to the United States and estimates of what the import surcharge would cost the Japanese economy range from 8700 million to $2.5 billion for the remainder of this year. American capital is clearly trying to contain further Japanese encrachments on the American market. This was the second big shock for the Sato government coming as it did on the heels of Kissinger's visit to Chou en Lai and the announcement of Nixon's Impending visit to Peking. The difference being that while the United States gave two minutes warning of the latter, it allowed ten minutes for the dollar devaluation. Apart from sharpening the contradictions between Japinese and Ameri can capital, a more immediate effect could well he the resignation of Suto from Japanese politics, thus marking the end of the "special relitionship" between the two countries and forcing the Jupanese to play a more independent role in policing Asia on behalf of imperialism. Certainly one wim of the Nixon administration is undoubtedly to force capitalist Europe fin particular, West Germany) and Japan to contribute and share the cost of American military bases abroad, which cost just over $3 billion a year.
US IMPORTS FROM JAPAN/ 40 3 TO JAPAN- EXPORTS 9031 -fest sie months at berta rate today understands perfectly well that a continued demoralisation inside the Army, coupled with growing unemployment at home could prove to be a fatal combination. His approach to Peking is thus made at a time of weakness, which makes all the more criminal the Chinese collaboration with the Yahya and Bandaranaike regimes in Pakistan and Ceylon against the revolutionary movements of those two countries, It seems unlikely whether Peking will be able to wid Nixon in getting the Vietnamese to make more than purely tactical compromises. The latter are in a strong position and aware of it. Despite the cynical opportunism of Peking the revolutionary process in Asia will continue to unfold. The Indian sub-continent today becomes a new weak link in the imperinlist chain.
THE STRUGGLE IN LATIN AMERICA In Latin America, the overthrow of Torres in Bolivia only spells out what the Fourth International has vigorously maintained since its Ninth World Congress in 1969, namely, that armed struggle is on the agenda throughout the contiment. The so-called military reformists have received their first answer in Bolivia, where all the left groups have united to create a clandestine military command to continue the struggle. Thus the struggle begun by Che Guevara is today resumed and its participants include many new recruits to the cause of armed struggle, It is clear that in Peru, the junta will be faced with similar alternatives and that some young Turks in the Chilean Army could well emulate the Bolivian army officers and attempt to put an end of the unstable political situation in their country. The situation in Brazil and Argentina also is not one that is likely to provide cumfort to the United Stutes. The brutal military dictatorship in Brazil, which only recently tortured one of our contrades to death (see elsewhere in this issue), leaves no other option open to the masses but that of clandestine organisation and preparation for an armed struggle. In Argentina, the comrades of the ERP (People's Revolutionary Anny together with other fighting organisations have demonstrated the possibilities of a coordinated struggle against the Lunusse dictatorship. The next period will see more muss explosions in Latin America, and the United States will find it difficult to rely on its janitors in Latin America alone. At some stage it will he forced to intervene directly.
The current dollar crisis thus marks the end of a period of comparative stability for United States capital and it coincides with a world situation where despite the sctbacks recently suffered by the revolutionary movement (Palestine. Ceylon, etc.) the revolutionary upsurge still continues. This could well lead to a situation which would surprise all those who had written the American working class off and devised theories to prove how well it had been integrated into the structures of the bourgeois state.
-Tarig Ali
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Mirror E Jl Fiorino: Come fermare 1l Nix-dollar
Chr Bail Telegraph Full Seed sect in later time NIXON RISKING