political situation is crystallising, and the course of the struggle for a whole period is being decided.
The changes in the situation can only be understood coherently when placed within the framework of the general analysis presented in this paper over the last two years. The failure to achieve a military victory has now pushed to the fore a faction of the Tory party who believe that a political victory is possible. Whitelaw has been attempting to split the catholic community and paralyse the support for the IRA, and in the long term he hopes to integrate a decisive section of the catholics back into the Northern state. The local elections in October, fought on the basis of Proportional Representation, are meant to mark the end of this process, and a new step in the elimination of the factors of conflict within the North. But despite the panache with which Whitelaw has tackled his task, its success, far from being assured, very much hangs in the balance.
UNIONISM NOW The effect of the imposition of direct rule was to recreate the old antagonism within Unionism i.e. the contradiction between the British connection and the Orange ascendancy: despite the fact that for most of the history of British imperialism in Ireland the two have been combined, and have buttressed each other, they are not the same thing (see The Red Mole 42). For the moment, however, those like Brian Faulkner who think the above elements are not incompatible have succeeded in papering over the cracks in the Unionist monolith; and by keeping a common front with Craig and the Vanguard, to pressurise for the restoration of some sort of "regional parliament" (ie. a revamped Stormont), and for more aggressive action against the catholic minority, in particular against Free Derry, they have succeeded in getting some concessions out of Whitelaw.
Thus the release of internees will go on, but "important" internees will not be released except on health grounds, and future releases will be determined by the level of violence in the province, and any return to "normality" in the no-go areas. And while stressing his opposition to any "purely military solution" to the problem of Free Derry, Whitelaw carefully does not exclude this altogether. Such concessions, while showing White law's anxiety not to antagonise unnecessarily the Unionists, nevertheless fall absolutely within the terms of reference of his strategy.
Students at the University of Kenf at CanterThe developments within the catholic minority will encourage Whitelaw to hold fast, and stick to his policy. The "pecce" morement in Deiry in particular is a sign that he is having increasing success; unlike the Women Together farce in Andersonstown, the Derry women are a real factor in the situation, and they reflect a growing mood of war-weariness which is the inevitable result of the present situation. Within any capitalist state "liberated areas" very soon come up against their own limitations; the influence of bourgeois ideology, the uneven political development of the masses, the privations of life behind the barricades, and the seeming solidity of the enemy, all combine to fragment the masses. The long term maintenance of Free Derry can only be envisaged on two conditions, that the alternatives to resistance appear worse to the masses than the strain of continued defiance, or that the liberated area is used as the base for an assault against the state, and that the masses understand and support the political perspectives. involved in this. The lack of such a perspective, and the switch in strategy by British imperialism, militate against the long term maintenance of the free area.
As the choice before the minority becomes more clear those elements who had stayed behind the barricades only because their political existence depended on not being left too far behind by the masses, crawl out from under their stones. The middle class represented by assorted lumpen clergy, petty proprietors writ large, and the spineless career-boys of the SLP, willing to sell out the long term tasks of history for transient promises, are scurrying to offer their services in the cause of reconciling the catholic minority to the bright new Whitelaw administration.
THE UNFREE STATE In the 26 Counties the victory of the pro-EEC forces in the referendum has encouraged Jack Lynch to act more decisively against the Republicans. The setting up of kangaroo courts, and the opening of the Curragh prison camp, the arrests of Republican leaders, including Ruairi and Sean O Bradaigh and Joe Cahill, are all determined by the new confidence felt by Lynch after the failure of the upsurge following the Derry massacre to consolidate into an ongoing mass movement. There are hints also of more important developments;
an historic political weakness of the 26 county bourgeoisie has been its inability to exorcise the ghosts of the Civil War and the Treaty.
The joint campaign by Fianna Fail and Fine been followed by gestures across the divide of history, one such is the announcement by Lynch that for the first time under a Fianna Fail administration the Free State Army will participate in the annual commemoration for Michael Collins, former commander of the Army of the Irish Republic, and signatory of the 1922 treaty, killed during the Civil War. The two main parties of reaction in Ireland, who had relied on evoking the divisions of the past to keep their grip on the Irish people, now begin to abandon their mythology, and openly link arms to hold the line against the Irish reTHE OFFICIALS Already one section of the resistance forces, the Official Republican Army, has yielded to the pressure and announced a cease fire. While this has been influenced by the effects of the "peace"" movement, it is related also to the politics of the Officials. Since an adequate assessment of this could only be made in a more extended analysis we will leave it aside for the present.
THE FORCES AGAINST WHITELAW But the forces for giving up the struggle are by no means as powerful and unchallenged as the British press would present them. The struggles of the last three years have created a formidable spirit of struggle within the catholic community, and this can not be dispelled in a few months.
The statements by the British Army that the bomb in Anderson Street in the Short Strand was the responsibility of the IRA can only reduce the British Government's credibility amongst the catholics, for it is common knowledge that it was planted by masked men in two cars, who left one car with the bomb, and drove off in the other. Whitelaw wants to embargo publicity because of the very real danger of a protestant backlash, which is not posed so much by the mass para-military parades of the Vanguard (which are mainly for the purpose of political pressure), but more by the scattered groups of Orange fanatics who could spark off a more general confrontation. This danger strengthens support for the IRA in the ghettoes, as was seen in the massive demonstration in Derry to challenge the SLP "peace"
rally.
The unanimity of the middle class forces for "peace" to a large extent stems from pressure from Whitelaw, anxious to show results for his policy, there is a strong possibility that by pushing ahead too fast they could isolate themselves from the ghettoes.
Whitelaw has exerted this pressure because of the strict time limits on his policy. Before he can get to the elections in October he has to pass the marching season which opens up in July. He hopes to have got a sufficient grip on the situation, and sufficient impetus for his policies to get him through this period. But again this can only be logically posed if he succeeds in getting the barricades down in the minority back into the system. THE PRISONERS In facing this new situation the forces of the Irish revolution should avoid allowing the term: of reference to be dictated by the murderers of Derry, who would like nothing better than to pin the label of war on the Republicans, whil covering themselves with the flag of peace. Whitelaw has not won the war, and new fronts can be opened by the forces of resistance. The riot of the political prisoners in Mountjoyr prison, Dublin, could have been the focus of a mass campaign on an all Ireland basis, it is not too late to turn the tide.
The silence of the British press on the case of Billy McKee shows how vulnerable they feel. McKee has been on hunger strike in Belfast Prison for over two weeks, and is approaching the point of death, yet his case has received barely any news coverage in Britain, and a restricted amount in Ireland. He has now been joined by other Provisional prisoners, de manding political status. Whitelaw could save the lives of these men with the stroke of a pen, but he is not willing to risk alienating the Vanguard extremists. The blanket on press coverage cannot hide the reality of sectarianism in the North under Whitelaw's glittering facade.
IN BRITAIN Now more than ever the solidarity movements in Britain must be built. Our support for the struggle was never based on an emotional response to particular acts of brutality, and we oppose as bitterly an Ireland in which the wealth is divided amongst the gombeenmen of Dublin, the self-styled Captains and Majors of Belfast, and the monopolists of London and Brussels, as we oppose an Ireland divided by a false border and the sectarianism imposed by the oppressors of the past. The next two months will be decisive and it is necessary to resist the impression which will gain ground on the British left, that the Irish question 1s solved. Whitelaw can do no more than create the basis for an imperialist solution to the Irish question, new struggles and crises lie ahead. The Irish people still face the decisive battles, either they will defeat British imperialism, or they will suffer a catastrophic defeat themselves, which will enable British imperialism to decide the fate of Ireland-a fate which will mean emigration, exploitation and the elimination of the last trace of Irish nationhood. In this work, greater unity amongst all forces fighting to support the Irish struggle is vital. and the fact that the Anti-Internment League has taken up a suggestion from the Irish Solidarity Campaign to have a campaign in defence of Free Derry over the summer months is an indication of the growing unity in action. A special effort must be put into the Slough AlL demo on June 24th which will open up this campaign.
Bob Purdie Gery Lawless