The tanks which rolled into Free Derry and Free Belfast early on Monday morning have won a pyrrhic victory. They cannot maintain peace, and they cannot hold these areas for long. The lack of resistance was foreseeable, no guerrilla will stand and face vastly superior forces when it is possible to strike again when the enemy is less prepared. Both wings of the IRA have the military capacity and the support amongst the people needed to make the occupation of these areas a very difficult problem for the British. The IRA does not need to force the British Army out at gunpoint, all they need do is to deny the British any peace; mounting deaths amongst British soldiers, spiralling costs, and a deepening political crisis will do the rest.
ORANGE ASCENDANCY This latest turn in British policy is caused by the failure of Whitelaw's strategy from the imposition of direct rule to the breakdown of the cease fire. Whitelaw failed because in the Six Counties any concessions given or promised to the catholic minority will always result in a mobilisation of the mass of the protestants. determined to retain their ascendancy and sectarian institutions. Having raised the spectre of an Orange backlash, Whitelaw allowed the Army to bend to UDA pressure. When the Provos made it clear that their cease fire was conditional on resistance to protestant sectarianism the bend became a crack, and the British were swept into the Republican free areas by the force of Orange pressure. Despite this Whitelaw still promises fake concessions to the catholics, combining the big stick with offers of pie in the utopia of a "peaceful" six counties. Thus he will maintain an open door for the middle class forces behind the SDLP, while terrorising all those who will not submit to British rule.
The latest events are proof, if proof were needed, that there can be no solution to the crisis of Northern Ireland within the context of the Six Counties; only by challenging the root of the problem-the sectarian state, and the institutions on which it has based itself for fifty years-can any progress be made. It is through the overthrow of the reactionary settlement imposed on Ireland in 1922, and the unfolding of the national struggle into an all-Ireland struggle for a Workers Republic that the struggle will advance. The major problem is that of spreading the struggle to the 26 Counties, and linking up the various struggles going on there into a political offensive against "stab-in-the-back" Lynch and the British imperialism which he more and more unreservedly backs.
SOLIDARITY MOVEMENT The IRA will stay in the former Free Areas and will fight back against the occupation forces-that was the message from Barney McFadden, a Provisional Sinn Fein leader in Derry, speaking at a meeting near the Bogside Inn. He explained that the IRA " …...will be back again and will drive the British Army out of Derry.........I ask you to have faith in the Republicans. They are still here and they will fight again when the time becomes opportune." (Irish Times, 1 August)
This statement was echoed by Sean MacStiofain, interviewed on television, who said that the IRA had refused to be drawn into a confrontation with superior forces, but that they would carry on the struggle in accordance with the principles of guerrilla warfare. There can be no doubt that the Provisionals will hit back hard at the British Army; they have proved in the past that they can be relied upon to find new ways of harassing the enemy. BITTERNESS But the struggle against the occupying forces will not be a solely military one. All of the Republican and revolutionary forces involved in the struggle have called on the people to have nothing to do with the British troops. A Provisional statement said:- "We warn all those who are engaged in acts of collaboration with the enemy to either desist or pay the penalty for such treachery. Owners of all business premises who serve occupation forces do so at their own peril, fraternisation with the enemy is forbidden and civil resistance must be increased in every aspect." (Irish Independent, 2 August)
The Officials, while not calling off their ceasefire, called on the minority to "ostracise" the British Troops. Michael Farrell of Peoples Democracy said:- "The only way to end this new reign of terror is on the streets. The next two weeks must see a massive build up of protests against the occupying army and the British gauleiter Whitelaw. " (Irish Times, 1 August)
Already the Army has felt the bitterness of the oppressed minority. General Tuzo himself was given a very clear example of the sentiments of the Bogsiders when he was driven away from Free Derry corner under a hail of stones during a tour of the newly conquered territory. It is in Derry too that the sharpest effects of the civil resistance are likely to be felt. A deleTroops retreat from one barricade in face of local resistance - they had to leave it till the next day gation of trade unionists and others has warned Tuzo that the security measures, which include the re-barricading by the Army of much of the area and constant searches of cars, houses and pedestrians, could lead to a general strike. Among those threatening action are workers at the Du Pont chemical plant, the British Oxygen Company, the Rosemount shirt factory, The Essex International factory, and the Power Station.
The arrogance of the Army has known no limits, with troops in Derry challenging local people to "throw a stone so we can shoot you" A particularly petty act has been the seizing in Andersonstown of Casement Park and its social club, the only recreational facilities for local people. TURBULENT PROVINCE Whitelaw's self-satisfied justification of the invasion, and his smug claims for its success, are likely to sound rather hollow shortly. Indeed the completeness with which he has capitulated to Orange pressure has left many of his supporters a bit breathless. Already Simon Winchester, one of the top British journalists in the Six Counties, speculates gloomily in The Guardian:- "There were those who, three years ago, scoffed at suggestions that we might need 10,000 soldiers here in a year or so's time. There must be many people now who wonder if even 50,000 would be enough to stabilise the turbulent province." (2 August)
Need we say more?