Tariq Ali, a leading militant of the Fourth Oil blackmail. Petroleum warfare, In the Western press there is no lack of indignant declarations' characterising the current crisis. The secretury general of NATO even stated that he considered the cut-off of ol supplies from the Arab states as the equivalent of a declaration of war, And that could justify armed intervention. Moreover, it is known that elite American troops have recently been training in desert warfare.
HIGH STAKES Indeed, for capitaliat industry the stakes and high. While Amb oil currentiy accounts for only about 6-8 per cent of American oil imports, the upper limits of U.S. production are such that in spite of the exploitation of the Alaskan deposits coming Years will see a bir increase in imports of Arab oi (to as much as 40 per cent of total oil imports by 1980)
As for Europe, it gets about 65 per cont of its oll from the Middle Fast, and even if it seeks to broaden its sources (the North Sea, Niguria, ete.), it will be impossible for it to get by without the petroleum of the Arab-Persian Gulf.
In fact, while production from Arsb countries now accounts for about 30 per cent of world oil produc tion, the same countries hold nearly 60 per cent of total world reserves, So the stakes, which are already high today, will rise sall higher during the HENS ICIDE SALIETEER But to real understand mpolarms QuirE we have to look at the various stagcs of production, transport, and marketing (refining, distribution) Until 1970 some 90 per cent of Middle East oil production was controlled by seven giant companies. They are culled the seven sisters, and they account for about 60 per cent of tobil world ail production, Or the seven, five are American: Standard Oil, Exo Teraco Mobil Gult one is Hotish: Srilish Petroleum: ond one is Anglo Dutch: Rayal Dutch Since 1970, there have been some nationalsations by Libya and trag anong others, and it is planned that the Arah stater will control 51 por cont of productioc within a few years "LOYAL REGIMES' The consoquences of clus measure can be minimal provided the governments in Europe and the Laited Stars can mare sine of the maltenance ar loyal regimes. That is the basis of Amorican imperialiser's who addie Past pones, whico i done at securing leadership for Saudi Arabia. The Anglo-FrenchIsraeli attack of 1956 and the Iscaeli attack of 1967 were aimed at isolating lgypt and depriving it of the tanagement, and at dealing a deatl blow to tbe progressive nacionalist regime in Syria, It can be stated that this policy has been fails successful. The rightward tarn of the Arab world under the leadership of Saudi Arabia's Bang Fazal is Cirmly under way.
That it continue is the second roguirement DI Europoan am American poncy, While the soctal andPolitica evolution now unuer way in me reope Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemec), in brutally tortured and executed by firing squads for FOUR OUTLETS fulfil this mission. end of the Red Sea.
EGYPT SUDAN ЕТНІСРІА The four major oil outlets Europe. this "pacitication. Dholar, and in Muscat and Oman does not represen! an immediate treat to the outlets for Arab oil American imperialism nevertheless understands that and Moscow.
oance of prevention is worth + pound of cure. The strategy" lint, launch armed aflacks aprinst South Yemen and support the Sultan of Muscal. Faisal's army and some Libyan experts doing their bit. And then, control tho strategic pointe These are foor main oil cutlets in the region: 1, The Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz that command the pult. Surveillance of the galf and the straits has beon assigned to the Iranian cogime, which in 1972 occupied soveral islands at the mouth of the gulf. American bases maintained in the region acip to 2. The mouth of the Red Sea, The Socurity' of the entrance to the kud sea is cuarantood DE LIC Ethiopian porernment, an important pawn of imperialism in Last Alnco The Umind States maintains, among others, a military buse in Kagnew. Ethiopia, Further, the Istacle army is instalied on certain islands off the coust of North Yemen. Because of the importance of necess to the Rod Sea, Egyptian troops recently took controt of the Bab el-Mandeb straits at the extreme southero 3. The far north of the Red Sea One part of this outlet the Suex Carel, is hlocked, which stronely hinders the European oil companies, which must sail their oil around Africa, Hat it also lampers mose ment of the Soviet feet between the Mediterrancan and the Indian Ocean. So we can see who is interested growth). in ropening the Suer Canal to navigation.
IRAN IRAG SAUD ARABIA The other outlet in the berther end of the Red Sea Is the Elat Ashkelon pipeline on Isracli territary, TE capacity is sebeduled to be doubled, It tramsports not only Iranian oil, but also petroleum products ongina ting in Saudi Arabia. Nevartheless, the closing of this pipeline because of the blockade of the Bah el Mandeb NO FREEZE cannot have peat censeqaences for the supply of oil to Israel. The Eryptian oil wells in the Sinai now being operated by the Israeli occupiers prodece utmost all the off used by the Zionist state. Only a very small part of Israel's oil needs ure supplied throwch the part of Flat, Henow, nearly all the oil arriving in Flat is piped throagh to Ashkelon and loadod on tankers lor 4. Finally, part of Saudi Arabian and Iraqi production is transported through pipelines Jeading to Lebamese and syrian ports. The recept war partially cut off this necessary supply source for the Europeans (deliveries or Saudi Arabian oil through the pipeline were reduceu he balt: the tensinal at tho Syrian port of Tartus was destroyed) But aside from the current conliet, it has been crucial for 11,5, imperiabsm to establish tightur con rol ever thes region. Definicive liquidation of te Palestinian resistance is us indispensable condition fot serves the people', while to ellay the fears of the micidie ciesses there with on a mouncy of the working class instead of the dictatorship' of the This further shift to the right care out must charly MARIOS HOUSE SALS CHIA DO TEAR SUDE valence-prone leftist groups", and the error of critici sing the formula of peaceful revolution just because of the Chilean experiencr", The capitalists have no such illusions, homevir. - it is an oper secret that right wing Literal Democrst oo it cians of thi Seiren kal group have beer involved in discussions with a number or ammy o ors about a possibie NAME future coup, and a joint Coup Study Group has been established. But for the CP, as this conference has shown only soo clearly, all that metters is to allay the fears of the Socialist Party and the Buddhis: Koreito ( CiRer Govererent Party! in smooti And the whole dructure, naturally rests on the base principle ol peaceful co-existence betwoon Washingtan Hecause the recent Egyptian-Syrian initiative shook up pertale plans, it has hecome wigent for Washington (and Moscow) to re-establish calm in the Middle Fast The hectic voyapes of Nobel War Price winner Hear! Kisinger (Moscow, Cuira, Riyadh, Tel Avn, AmmanPeking) restify to that.
For the partial cil cur-off, wbile it scarcely bothers the United States (at least directly), was not greeled with great vothusiasm by Washington's Furopean ailics, Nevertholoss, although smu: divisions may appoar, the interests of the North American and European capitalists overlap sufficien ly for then: to some co a Common sEries Maturer, from the imperialist point of view, the spectacle of the Arab statos defying the mutharity of the a orld's great powers must is no way he en couraged, for it could trigger a growing tobilisation of the Arab messes, despite the faet that the Arab regimes ure not aiming at any such thing. PROFIT BONANZA Ic has been noted roccorly-and the figures demons trate it- thar the oil companios are experiencing a profit bonaras. In Europe and she Uniled States, profits for 1972 wenty up by 60-50 per cent in comprisen with 1971. The boom of the Perralin company during the last tob or three years is one example (although the oil discoveries thai company made in Angola have something to de with its Taking account of the devsluation of the dollar, and in spite of the pria adaistments obtained by the oil-exporting contries, a metre lan of crude oil cost 930 times in 1972 as agains: 1,0-40 Tranes an 197L. What expizins the increased profit while the buying cose has declined is that distribution prices have pone up, under the pressure of the Helgian Petroloum Federation. Anything that is thought to be searce will be oxpensive, so it is quite lucrative for the oil companies to start tulking about an oil shoriage, Furthermor, It might be recalled bat in 1968 the Arab ol-producing states noceived $0.70 on such harrel of oil while the oil companies profits and the liscal Income of the consuming states was ninting at about 36 Because Furopean capitabsm is soone severely affected Ey the reduction in the export of Arab oil, it will sock to encourie competitiun among the oil procucie states by turning to varinus countrics bke Lan. Bat it will also try toaflect a benorcient neutmlity in the Arab-ferneli conflict.
This in no way involves challenping the existence of the Zionist state, but rather seeking a new status qua, No doubt Israel will hace to make certain concessions-like re opening the Suat Canal, which both Europe and the Soviet Union desire that would allow the Arab states to recoup some of their lost prestige among thot own perfiles by presenting thi Dow shitos quo as an Arab viclory, The huge diplomat le square conce that has just begun is aimed at tinding just sich a compronuse.
The utlisation of the oil weupon by the Arab reudat and bourgecis classes is limited to ane poal to establish an international elationship of foroes more favourable to thear le order to make suns Internally in relation to the Arab mass If that objoctive is achieved, the oil spigors will open up again. Uatil that happens Europe tas get a little chilly, but it won't freeze.
As for the rights of the Palstician pouple, a lecit the Arab baders talk about ofter oncuph, they will no deubt once again be used as bargaining chips and will be sold out. But then agaio, how can these rights ever be granted without the triumpli of the socialist revolution in the atole Middle Enst, in the Arab countries and in Israel as well? (La Groche;
International (British Section of the Fourth Internationall 182 Pentonville Road, London N.1.
I would like more infor mation about the iMG and its actiwities.
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Marxist Group